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1、 SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 Industry Research Bringing China to the World 8 January 2018 Underweight Unchanged 兰州兰州限购限购转转限售限售,落实落实分类分类调控调控 房地产行业 Analyst Kris Li A0230511040076 ARG379 Related Reports Continued
2、 reforms, Dec27, 2017 Tightened regulation, Nov20, 2017 Joint ownership housing, Nov9, 2017 Leasing over buying, Nov6, 2017 Regional disparities, Nov2, 2017 Tightening policy, Sep25, 2017 Home-steady, Sep15, 2017 Rent yield, Aug4, 2017 Hot property, Jul18, 2017 Pricing signals, Jun20, 2017 Premium p
3、roperties, Jun5, 2017 Finding new financing, May22, 2017 Intensifying concern, May5, 2017 Price rebound, Apr19, 2017 上周五晚间,中国西北部甘肃省省会城市兰州出台一系列 2018 年最新房地产调控政 策,率先取消部分区域限购,而对核心区域加码三年限售。我们认为兰州此次调控新政 仅为个例,并非其他城市将可能竞相松绑限购政策的前奏。此外,相比房地产行业紧缩 政策,我们重申对持续进行中的金融去杠杆将带来的负面影响表示担忧。 兰州并无限购必要。兰州并无限购必要。作为中国经济不发达的西北地
4、区四个省会城市之一,兰州是唯一一 个自 2017 年 4 月开始在全市大部分区域内实施限购的城市,即在限购区域内,兰州市 户籍家庭已有两套及以上住房的,不得再次购买新建商品住房及二手住房;非兰州市户 籍家庭仅允许购买一套新建商品住房或二手住房,须提供连续缴纳的 3 年及以上社会保 险证明或 1 年及以上个人所得税证明,已有一套及以上住房的,不得再次购买新建商品 住房及二手住房。兰州 2016 年新房销售面积同比增长 23%,而同期房屋销售均价仅同 比微涨 3.2%,相比较同期过热城市只能算作温和复苏。继实施该非必要的限购政策三 个季度之后,兰州 2017 年新房销售面积同比下降 17%,尽管同
5、期房屋销售均价同比增 长 3.7%。 核心区域加码限售。核心区域加码限售。此次兰州出台的 2018 年调控新政中,取消了三个近郊区(西固 区、九州开发区、高坪区)的住房限购政策,而对核心城区(城关区、七里河区、安宁 区)继续实行限购政策,即兰州户籍家庭最多可购买两套,非兰户籍家庭最多可购买一 套,但不再要求提供社保证明和纳税证明。与此同时,为响应中央对“房子是用来住 的,不是用来炒的”调控号召,兰州宣布对核心城区(城关区、七里河区、安宁区)和 一个近郊区(西固区)实施限售政策,即个人在上述区域内购买的住房(含新建商品住 房和存量住房),自取得不动产权证书满三年方可上市交易,由此兰州成为全国范
6、围内第 46 个执行限售政策的城市(通常限售期为 2-5 年)。 高阶城市更具吸引力。高阶城市更具吸引力。在目前执行限购的 50 余个城市中,兰州可被认为是经济基本面 最差的城市,根据我们梳理,我们预计约有 10 个并无限购必要的三线城市将可能跟随 松绑限购而转向加码限售,而其余 40 个城市放松调控的可能性较小。实际上从 2017 年 第三季度开始,我们注意到多个执行严格限购政策的二线城市开始放宽落户限制以绕开 限购,例如西安、济南、长沙、武汉以及近期扩展到郑州和南京,均出台一系列人才落 户政策,本科学历甚至专科学历的非户籍人口可快速在上述城市中获得当地户籍并由此 获得购房资格。我们认为,更
7、多城市将可能出台类似的政策微调,但也进而推动更多人 口从三四线城市流入一二线城市,由此导致三四线城强劲新房销售(占全国销售面积的 70%)的可持续性愈加存疑。 流动性展望不容乐观流动性展望不容乐观。2018 年第一周,我们注意到监管层不断发布一系列新规,旨在 进一步标准化各类金融机构开展的业务(包括银行业和非银行业),在我们看来,以防 范金融系统性风险的去杠杆化可能不可避免地导致整体流动性收紧。此外,正如我们此 前所强调的,申万宏观判断全年新增人民币贷款将从 2017 年的 13.8 万亿增加至 2018 年的 14 万亿-14.5 万亿,但我们认为以按揭贷款为主的居民中长期贷款将进一步收缩至
8、 4.2 万亿-5 万亿之间(相比 2015 年为 3 万亿,2016 年为 5.7 万亿,以及 2017 年前 11 个月为 5 万亿),使其在全年新增人民币贷款中所占比例降至 30-35%,而银行面对额 度趋紧以及价格上涨伴随的更高风险将可能要求更高的贷款利率。 标的推荐。标的推荐。香港上市的大中型内地开发商股价于 2018 年第一周平均上涨约 14%,而此 次 A 股同业反弹的势头更为强劲。目前板块平均估值为 11.1 倍 17 年 PE,8.6 倍 18 年 PE,以及 1.4 倍 17 年 PB,1.2 倍 18 年 PB,我们认为市场对此次调控有望松动反应过 度,而忽视了持续调控政
9、策以及金融去杠杆带来的累积影响。此外,随着高价地陆续上 市,开发商布局在核心一二线城市的项目销售毛利率在 2018 年限价不取消的情况下可 能面临向下压力,与此同时,开发商融资成本将持续上升,而融资渠道也将有所分化。 整体上我们认为 2018 年国有开发商比民营开发商更安全,区域上我们更看好高阶城市 土地多的企业,并认为开发物业和持有物业并重的开发商更具有抗风险能力,综合而言 我们推荐华润置地,龙湖地产和远洋集团。 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in t
10、his report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also pro
11、vide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of t
12、he disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. 8 January 2018 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1 Lanzhou, capital city of northwestern Chinas Gansu Province, announced a change in real estate purchases policy, shifting restrictions from purchases to re
13、sales of homes. We view the policy as an isolated instance specific to the city rather than signaling a nationwide policy of property restriction relaxation. Meanwhile, we reiterate our cautious view on the market amid ongoing deleveraging. We remain Underweight the sector. Unnecessary limits on hom
14、e purchase. Lanzhou was the only one of the four provincial capitals in under-developed northwestern China to introduce home purchase restrictions in early 2017. The city blocked locally registered households from acquiring more than two homes, while non- locals were restricted to just one home in t
15、he city, after providing evidence of having been tax- registered in the city for at least a year. Lanzhou reported a 23% YoY increase in new home sales volume in 2016 while home prices increased just 3.2% YoY, a mild rate compared with other cities introducing restrictions. With three quarters of ho
16、me purchase limits, full-year 2017 transaction volume in the city was down 17% YoY. Additional restrictions on resales. The incoming regulation, under which purchase restrictions apply only in city centre districts (removing suburban districts) and local households no longer need to demonstrate tax
17、or social security payments, represent a policy loosening. However, to remain compliant with the central governments directive to ensure that housing be used only for habitation, not speculation, the local government banned home resales within three years of purchase in all city centre districts and
18、 one suburban district, becoming the 46th city in China to introduce home resale restrictions (generally for 2-5 years). Attractiveness of higher-tier of cities. Lanzhou could be considered the city with weakest economic fundamentals among the c.50 cities with home purchase limits in place. Thus, we
19、 see some likelihood that c.10 tier-3 cities with unnecessary limits on home purchases may follow suite in shifting restrictions from purchases to resales, while the remaining cities are likely to maintain their current policy trajectory. We note that, starting from 3Q17, some tier-2 cities have alr
20、eady started to relax internal immigration rules to indirectly ease purchase restrictions, while others have started offering residence permits to people with higher education degrees to become eligible to buy homes immediately. More such fine-tuning measures may be possible, however, this in our vi
21、ew would attract more home buyers from lower-tier cities to higher-tier cities, hence the sustainability of resilience in home sales in lower-tier cities in China (accounting for c.70% of national volumes) may be under pressure. Unfavorable liquidity outlook. In the first week of 2018 we saw non-sto
22、p releases of new regulations targeting further standardisation of business conducted by financial institutions including both banking and non-banking sectors, aimed at preventing systemic risks, which we view as potentially detrimental to market liquidity. Our macroeconomics team estimates total in
23、cremental renminbi-denominated loans to increase from Rmb13.8tn in 17E to Rmb14-14.5tn in 18E, while we expect mortgage loans to narrow to Rmb4.2-5tn (vs Rmb5tn in January- November 2017), or just 30-35% of total incremental loans, and the smaller quota and higher risks along the price hike to cause
24、 banks to ask for higher mortgage rates. Stock recommendation. Medium- to large-cap Hong Kong-listed Chinese developers rebounded 14% in the first week of 2018, while A-share peers rallied even more strongly. The average valuation is now at 11.1x 17E PE, 8.6x 18E PE, and 1.4x 17E PB, 1.2x 18E PB. We
25、 view such valuations as representing an overreaction to relaxation expectations while overlooking the accumulated impact of property tightening and financial deleveraging. Should price-capping measures continue in higher-tier cities, developer margins may be under pressure, while refinancing costs
26、may rise and developers may increasingly diverge based on access to funding. We maintain our preference on state-owned names for 2018, and we favour players with footprints in higher-tier cities and balanced portfolios in both development property and investment property, such as China Resources Lan
27、d (1109: HK Outperform), Longfor Properties (960: HK Outperform) and Sino-Ocean Group Holding (3377: HK Outperform). 8 January 2018 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2 Specific case of Lanzhou In late Friday night, Lanzhou, the capital city of northwest C
28、hinas Gansu Province, released the new property tightening package for the year 2018 with restrictions transferring from purchase to re-sale. We take it as a specific case for this Tier-3 city instead of a prelude signaling more relaxations on the way from the other cities. In addition, as compared
29、with the industry austerity measures, we reiterated our concern on the negative impact resulting from the on-going financial de-leverage. Unnecessary limits on home purchase Lanzhou, as the only one of the four capital cities in under-developed Northwest China, began to impose restrictions on home p
30、urchase in April 2017 in most of the districts in the city, the local family with Hukou could not buy a third home whereas non-local family could only buy one home after paying more than one-year tax or three-year social security. Lanzhou reported a 23% YoY increase of new home sales volumes in 2016
31、 together with merely 3.2% YoY rise of home prices, which could only be taken as a mild recovery as compared with those overheated cities. After three quarters with unnecessary limits on home purchase in place, the transaction volumes of new homes for the whole year 2017 dropped by 17% YoY from 2016
32、 despite home prices continued to rise by 3.7% on the YoY basis. Fig 1: YoY growth of new home sales volume in key 40 cities, 2009-2017 City 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Beihai 66% 3% -10% -17% 34% 14% -6% 14% 76% Sanya 48% 24% 15% 10% 1% -45% 6% 35% 41% Shijiazhuang 13% 38% 72% -9%
33、12% -7% -26% 21% 37% Taiyuan 14% 40% -23% 70% 30% -2% 7% 32% 36% Kunming 52% 46% -15% -1% 13% -6% 3% 12% 26% Wenzhou 93% -29% -41% 59% 76% 20% 20% 41% 25% Fuzhou 102% -18% 1% 37% 51% -26% -8% 36% 24% Harbin 24% 29% 9% 17% 19% -25% -12% 13% 23% Nanchang 42% 6% -11% 37% 26% 0% 9% 32% 22% Haikou 13% 10
34、% -1% 28% 27% -7% 11% 19% 21% Nanning 54% -12% 0% -4% 10% 14% 22% 31% 18% Ningbo 90% -24% -10% 3% 27% 2% 42% 33% 17% Dalian 42% 3% -26% 16% 14% -39% -11% 10% 16% Xi an 69% 27% 11% -18% 8% 1% 5% 18% 15% Changchun 26% 20% 0% -1% -2% -13% 6% 19% 13% Shenyang 5% 11% 29% 13% -8% -33% -29% 16% 9% Chongqin
35、g 41% 6% 2% 1% 6% 1% 1% 14% 8% Guiyang 95% -4% 0% 29% 21% -31% 0% 5% 6% Xining 47% 40% 21% -34% 64% -3% -1% 12% 6% National Average 54% 8% 4% 1% 18% -9% 7% 22% 5% Wuhan 52% 5% 7% 19% 26% 13% 22% 21% 5% Yinchuan 72% 6% -21% 22% 40% 13% -26% 8% 3% Zhengzhou 74% 32% -9% -6% 7% -2% 31% 52% 3% Qingdao 67
36、% 5% -24% -8% 25% -3% 21% 41% -1% 40-City Average 58% -7% -2% 9% 15% -8% 9% 22% -6% Urumqi 92% -13% 1% -15% 45% -18% 16% 12% -8% Chengdu 113% -10% 1% 4% 5% -3% -1% 34% -9% Hohhot 1% 28% 30% -19% -18% -10% 5% 7% -9% Wuxi 93% -3% -38% 48% -1% -5% 17% 35% -16% Lanzhou 30% -7% -21% 8% 34% 85% 32% 23% -1
37、7% Nanjing 70% -32% -10% 29% 30% -2% 27% -2% -17% Guangzhou 34% -11% -8% 10% 24% -14% 12% 21% -17% Shenzhen 73% -42% 17% 1% 8% -10% 58% -12% -20% Jinan 26% 18% 12% 4% 26% 3% 28% 33% -22% Hangzhou 107% -39% -14% 35% 5% -2% 36% 46% -25% Xiamen 137% -41% 11% 82% 21% -12% -32% -7% -28% Suzhou 127% -39%
38、-18% 34% 29% -11% 34% 16% -29% Changsha 77% 20% -15% 0% 20% -20% 27% 37% -33% Shanghai 49% -42% -13% 8% 27% -12% 13% 1% -34% Tianjin 29% -7% 8% 4% 14% -14% 13% 51% -40% Beijing 82% -36% -14% 43% -8% -17% -1% -13% -44% Hefei 37% -27% 23% 5% 30% -9% -3% 33% -44% Note: 16 cities highlighted in blue wer
39、e chosen by Chinese authorities to implement the first round of property tightening regulations in September 2016. Source: NBS, SWS Research 8 January 2018 Industry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 3 Additional restrictions on re-sale The change as disclosed by t
40、he 2018 package pointed to a loosening on home purchase, i.e., the restrictions would only implement in city urban districts (removing the three districts in the suburban areas) whereas non-local family could buy one home without subject to one- year tax payment or three-year social security. Howeve
41、r, meanwhile, to correspond to the call from the Central Government in terms of “housing is used for inhabitation instead of speculation”, Lanzhou rolled out new restriction on home re-sale with 3-years requirement after obtaining the housing ownership certificate in all the city urban districts as
42、well as one district in suburban areas, making itself the 46th city in China with restrictions on home re-sale (generally for 2-5 years). Fig 2: List of cities with restriction on purchase and re-sale Restriction on re-sale only Restriction on purchase and re-sale Restriction on purchase only Chongq
43、ing Guangzhou Ningbo Taiyuan Chengdu Tianjin Zhangjiagang Nanjing Suzhou Shaoxing Hangzhou Hefei Dezhou Wuhan Shenzhen Kunming Xiamen Shanghai Nantong Zhengzhou Beijing Guilin Jinan Jiujiang Guiyang Qingdao Ganzhou Nanning Zhuhai Zhenjiang Huizhou Changsha Huaian Wuhu Nanchang Zhongshan Fuqing Jiaxi
44、ng Jiangmen Yueyang Xian Foshan Xiangyang Wuxi Zhuozhou Kaifeng Fuzhou Tangshan Dongguan Qinhuangdao Shijiazhuang Langfang Shenyang Huailai Yangzhou Cangzhou Changzhou Beihai Lanzhou Haikou Sanya Qionghai Wuzhishan Zhangjiakou Chengde Baoding Source: Local official websites, Media reports, SWS Resea
45、rch Fig 3: Timeline of implemented restrictions on home transactions by city Cities 2017/3 2017/4 2017/5 2017/6 2017/7 2017/8 2017/9 2017/10 2017/11 2017/12 2018/1 Tier-1 Guangzhou Tier-2 (Capitals cities) Chengdu Xiamen Fuzhou Hangzhou Qingdao Chengdu Hainan Xian Jinan Zhengzhou Haikou Nanjing Kaif
46、eng Changsha Nanning Xian Shenyang Wuhan Taiyuan Taiyuan Chongqing Nanchang Nanning Changsha Guiyang Shijiazhuang Shijiazhuang Wuhan Lanzhou Tier-3 (Medium cities) Zhuhai Huizhou Changzhou Dongguan Yangzhou Chengde Qionghai Sanya Wuhu Chengde Jiaxing Wuxi Baoding Zhangjiakou Dongguan Zhangjiagang Gu
47、ilin Sanya Shaoxing Dezhou Yangzhou Tier-4 (County cities) Fuzhou- Minhou Nantong- Qidong Baoding- Xushui Hainan- Wuzhishan Guangxi- Beihai Fujian- Fuqing Guangxi- Beihai Chenggong- Kunming Xiangyang- Hubei Yueyang- Hunan Source: Local official websites, Media reports, SWS Research 8 January 2018 In
48、dustry Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 4 Fig 4: Breakdown of home transaction terms by buyer type 2-year 3-year 5-year 10-year For top talents Chengdu Wuhan For common individuals Xiamen Fuzhou Guangzhou Qingdao Minhou Xushui Changzhou Dongguan Chengde Hainan Xi
49、an Jinan Qionghai Wuhu Wuzhishan Chengde Jiaxing Wuxi Nanning Fuqing Shenyang Taiyuan Chongqing Nanchang Beihai Sanya Guilin Zhangjiagang Taiyuan Shaoxing Chenggong Shijiazhuang Dezhou Xiangyang Yueyang Qidong Zhuhai Huizhou Chengdu Zhengzhou Nanjing Kaifeng Zhangjiakou Changsha Guiyang Wuhan Yangzhou Lanzhou Xian (new homes) Shenyang (non-local buy new homes) Shijiazhuang Sanya (non-local) Beihai (third homes) For companies Dongguan Nanning Hangzhou Guangzhou Zhuhai Hainan Qionghai Wuzhishan Wuxi Haikou Sanya For homes with restricted prices Nanchang Baoding Source: Local official website