2018年12月房地产投资基金:AlphaWise库存定价指标介绍_22页_20181206.pdf
《2018年12月房地产投资基金:AlphaWise库存定价指标介绍_22页_20181206.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《2018年12月房地产投资基金:AlphaWise库存定价指标介绍_22页_20181206.pdf(22页珍藏版)》请在佰策地产文库上搜索。
1、December 6, 2018 05:01 AM GMT Ronald.K Richard.H Lauren.W Cautious MORGAN STANLEY Company Data, CoStar Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affec
2、t the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. 1 December 6, 20
3、18 05:07 AM GMT Record supply meets slowing job growth 2018 on pace for record spend on storage construction Construction starts are up 5x since 2010. Based on supply data from Cushman and Wakefield (C Company Data, CoStar Exhibit 14: Percent of square footage in top 50 counties 65% 63% 62% 59% 51%
4、0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% LSIPSACUBEEXRNSA Square Footage in Top 50 Markets Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar Exhibit 15: October reading shows rental rate growth for new tenants down -2% y/y -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12/1/2011 3/1/2012 6/1/2012 9/1/2012 12/1
5、/2012 3/1/2013 6/1/2013 9/1/2013 12/1/2013 3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 12/1/2014 3/1/2015 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017 6/1/2017 9/1/2017 12/1/2017 3/1/2018 6/1/2018 9/1/2018 Index of Top 50 Markets by RBA YoY Index of Top 50 Markets by RBA YoY Price / Squa
6、re Foot YoY Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar Exhibit 16: Harris, TX county underperforming down -18% y/y -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Ju
7、n-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Top 10 Markets by RBA YoY Los Angeles_CAHarris_TXCook_ILMaricopa_AZDallas_TX Broward_FLMiami-Dade_FLPalm Beach_FLClark_NVOrange_CA Price / Square Foot Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar 6 NSAs portfolio
8、 sees relatively less rental rate pressure than peers. Pressure on rental rates is evident across all REIT portfolios but to different degrees. Our pricing data suggests that NSA which has more exposure to secondary markets such as Raleigh and Atlanta has seen relatively less pressure on rental rate
9、s than peers with a reading of +3% growth (see Exhibit 19). PSA and LSI look particularly challenged with rental rate growth of -3% and -6%, respectively while EXR and CUBE are somewhere in between with rental rate growth of -1% and -2%, respectively. Exhibit 17: 32 markets with rental rate decline
10、CountyOctoberL3M PricingYTD Harris_TX-18.0%1.9%3.2% Williamson_TX-14.1%-10.0%-12.3% saint louis_MO-12.4%-11.4%-12.5% Wake_NC-11.3%-12.2%-14.0% Lee_FL-11.0%-4.6%1.1% Jefferson_CO-9.3%-7.9%-7.9% Davidson_TN-7.8%-3.8%-0.4% Collin_TX-7.5%-10.0%-11.1% Hillsborough_FL-7.1%-4.6%-5.4% Pinellas_FL-6.4%-1.4%-
11、0.2% Palm Beach_FL-6.3%-3.6%-4.0% Mecklenburg_NC-6.0%-6.7%-6.3% Miami-Dade_FL-5.9%-2.2%-5.6% du page_IL-5.5%-5.5%-9.9% Dallas_TX-5.2%-7.4%-8.9% Tarrant_TX-4.6%-7.2%-7.9% Kings_NY-4.4%-2.1%-7.5% Travis_TX-4.3%-4.2%-7.5% Sacramento_CA-3.0%-1.1%0.9% Gwinnett_GA-2.6%-2.1%-3.8% Cook_IL-2.3%-1.1%-4.8% Ora
12、nge_FL-2.2%-0.7%-2.6% Broward_FL-1.9%0.6%0.9% Suffolk_NY-1.7%-1.2%-1.6% Fairfax_VA-1.7%-1.1%-6.9% Cobb_GA-1.5%-2.2%-0.1% King_WA-1.4%-1.7%-1.0% Contra Costa_CA-1.1%-1.1%0.1% Bexar_TX-1.0%2.5%-1.5% Nassau_NY-1.0%-0.4%1.1% Cuyahoga_OH-0.9%2.8%0.3% Riverside_CA-0.1%5.1%6.6% Source: AlphaWise, Morgan St
13、anley Research; Company Data, CoStar Exhibit 18: 18 markets with rental rate increases CountyOctoberL3M PricingYTD Los Angeles_CA0.3%0.7%1.2% Shelby_TN0.5%-1.9%2.9% San Diego_CA0.9%1.1%-0.3% Alameda_CA0.9%-0.2%1.8% Maricopa_AZ1.3%1.7%-1.0% Middlesex_NJ1.7%1.3%3.3% Marion_IN1.8%1.5%-0.7% Orange_CA1.8
14、%2.2%-1.4% Santa Clara_CA1.9%1.0%-1.4% Fulton_GA3.0%4.5%1.1% Hennepin_MN3.0%2.7%3.1% Montgomery_MD3.4%3.1%-3.1% Franklin_OH4.5%5.2%3.2% DeKalb_GA5.1%4.9%2.0% prince georges_MD5.7%2.4%-1.4% Duval_FL5.9%6.0%4.4% San Bernardino_CA8.0%6.9%5.7% Clark_NV10.7%11.0%11.2% Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Re
15、search; Company Data, CoStar 7 Analyzing average price per market reveals that NSA and LSI are in relatively lower priced markets (see Exhibit 20 and Exhibit 21). This is not surprising given NSA/LSIs greater exposure to secondary and tertiary markets. The glass half full view of lower cost markets
16、is that there is more upside potential to raise rents while the glass half empty view is that there is lower demand and hence less ability to raise rents. Our data suggest that NSA is clearly outperforming LSI in portfolios that are predominantly in lower cost markets while EXR is outperforming PSA/
17、CUBE in portfolios that are predominantly in average and high cost markets. Exhibit 19: NSA outperforming (+3% growth) while PSA/LSI are underperforming -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 12/1/2011 12/1/2012 12/1/2013 12/1/2014 12/1/2015 12/1/2016 12/1/2017 Index of Top 20 Markets by RBA YoY PSAEXRLSICUBENSA So
18、urce: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar Exhibit 20: NSA/LSI have lower average prices. $1.30 $1.35 $1.40 $1.45 $1.50 $1.55 $1.60 $1.65 EXRPSACUBELSINSA AVG Price of Market AVG Price of Market Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar Exhibit 21: .given g
19、reater exposure to secondary and tertiary markets 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% EXRPSACUBELSINSA % of RBA in Markets RBA in Low Cost MarketsRBA in Average Cost Markets RBA in High Cost Markets Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar 8 Appendix A: Storage Pricing by REIT Ticker Exh
20、ibit 22: Rental rate growth for new tenants in top 50 markets -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12/1/2011 3/1/2012 6/1/2012 9/1/2012 12/1/2012 3/1/2013 6/1/2013 9/1/2013 12/1/2013 3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 12/1/2014 3/1/2015 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017 6/1
21、/2017 9/1/2017 12/1/2017 3/1/2018 6/1/2018 9/1/2018 Index of Top 50 Markets by RBA YoY Index of Top 50 Markets by RBA YoY Price / Square Foot YoY Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar Exhibit 23: PSA rental rate growth for new tenants -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12/1/20
22、11 3/1/2012 6/1/2012 9/1/2012 12/1/2012 3/1/2013 6/1/2013 9/1/2013 12/1/2013 3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 12/1/2014 3/1/2015 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017 6/1/2017 9/1/2017 12/1/2017 3/1/2018 6/1/2018 9/1/2018 Index of Top 20 PSA Markets YoY Index of Top 20
23、PSA Markets YoY Price / Square Foot YoY Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar Exhibit 24: EXR rental rate growth for new tenants -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12/1/2011 3/1/2012 6/1/2012 9/1/2012 12/1/2012 3/1/2013 6/1/2013 9/1/2013 12/1/2013 3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 12/1/2
24、014 3/1/2015 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017 6/1/2017 9/1/2017 12/1/2017 3/1/2018 6/1/2018 9/1/2018 Index of Top 20 EXR Markets YoY Index of Top 20 EXR Markets YoY Price / Square Foot YoY Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company Data, CoStar Exhib
25、it 25: LSI rental rate growth for new tenants -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 12/1/2011 3/1/2012 6/1/2012 9/1/2012 12/1/2012 3/1/2013 6/1/2013 9/1/2013 12/1/2013 3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 12/1/2014 3/1/2015 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017 6/1/2017 9/
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 2018 12 房地产 投资 基金 AlphaWise 库存 定价 指标 介绍 _22 _20181206