2019年6月中国房地产行业:中国物业管理:成为综合服务供应商的潜力_2019.6.27_97页.pdf
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1、 This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 91. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that
2、could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Global Research 27 June 2019 Initiation of Coverage China Property Management Potential to become integrated service providers Opportunity to become integra
3、ted service providers We initiate coverage of the China Property Managements sector with a positive view. We like its secular growth, light-asset business model, low policy risk, and the consolidation at both managers and developers levels, leading to 26% 2018-21E EPS CAGR for our coverage. Comparis
4、on with global peers implies Chinese managers may have an opportunity to become integrated service providers, which we think is not yet priced in. Here, we compare global peers business models, analyse project age to gauge the future margin trend, and project density at city level to gauge the proba
5、bility of developing the value-added services. Our top pick is A-Living due to attractive valuations on clean earnings basis after stripping off its agency business (connected- party transactions) and M 2) expand to non-residential property; and 3) expand globally. Looking at JLL and CBRE for commer
6、cial property, and FirstService for residential property, we see Chinese management companies non-management fees business (i.e. value-added services) may bring more than 50% of their future revenue. Chinese peers are increasing scale and project density in cities so that it is scalable to launch th
7、eir value-added services. What we are looking at are overall GFA scale, city level project density, and expansion to non-residential property.m WHATS PRICED IN? Our covered universe is trading at 23.4x 12-month forward earnings, with 26% EPS 2018-21E CAGR. We think the positives about its strong ear
8、nings growth, recurring revenue, light asset nature, lower policy risk, and consolidation story are largely priced in. However, we think the potential upside from value-added service is not priced in as we see consensus EPS CAGR in 2018-21E is largely driven by the GFA growth (which is highly certai
9、n) instead of growth from the value-added services segment. more UBS VIEW Potential upside from value-added services not priced in: We think the management companies have an edge in providing the value-added services, especially the property-related services, e.g. property transaction, leasing, deco
10、ration, cleaning services, with an edge in information advantage and unique offline access to owners. To monetize their edge, we think service quality and project density at city level are important, and, in our covered universe, we see Greentown Service has both elements. EVIDENCE Our project age,
11、project density analysis, and collaboration with US analysts and review of the global peers business model: Our project age analysis suggests most managers margins will remain stable in the next three years due to strong GFA growth, whilst COPH and Colour Life may have lower margin downside in the l
12、ong run. Our analysis of project density at city levels suggests Greentown Service has the highest density to provide its value-added services. Our collaboration with our US analysts, and comparison of global peers business model, suggests the roadmap for Chinese companies non- management fees busin
13、ess (i.e. value-added services) may be about 50% of their revenue in the future, and the area of growth can come from 1) expansion of their non-management business (e.g. value-added services), 2) expansion to non-residential property, and 3) global expansion. From the global peers business models, w
14、e think the roadmap for Chinese companies strategy could be to: 1) expand their non-management business (e.g. value- added services); 2) expand to non-residential property; and 3) expand globally Source: Company data, UBS Research 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Non-property management r
15、evenue % 43% 74% Integrated service provider (manage residential least preferred is COPH Source: Company data, UBS estimates Scorecard on managers. Greentown Service scores highest, followed by CGS: Since the sector is still growing, we think the investment thesis is about the managers earnings grow
16、th and earnings quality. We also added corporate governance and liquidity in our scorecard. Our target 2020E PE is based on the score of the following metrics. We use 2020E PE instead of 2019E PE as our target PE as our price target is on 12 months, and we expect investors will roll over the earning
17、s into 2020 when those companies report H119 results in August 2019. Growth visibility (40% of weighting): We include the reserve area as a proportion of the revenue-bearing area, and also the contract sales for their related developers to gauge their future growth visibility, each with 20% weightin
18、g. Stock Stock code Rating PT (HK$) price (HK$) Upside % Our view Most preferredA-Living3319.HKBuy15.6 13.38 17% A-Living is our top pick. We understand the market is concerned with A-Livings agency business (due to connected party transaction) and M percentage of GFA from third-party developers is
19、based on revenue-bearing GFA; * for A-Living, 2018 contract sales include Agiles contract sales of Rmb102.7bn and Greenlands committed annual contribution of 10m sqm (ASP Rmb10.6k/sqm). Source: Company data, UBS estimates Scorecard Corporate governance (10%) Liquidity (10%) Company Target 2020E P/E
20、Score 2018 reserve area % of rev. bearing area Developers related 2018 contract sales (Rmb bn) 2018 connected party transaction as % of revenue 2018 % of contracted GFA from M 2) EPS CAGR for FirstService and Colliers represent 2018- 20E CAGR; 3) fiscal year ended on 31 March for MITIE, on 30 Septem
21、ber for Compass Group and Elior Group, on 31 August for Sodexo; 4) catering service providers; 5) integrated facility service providers with services covering facility management, catering, cleaning, security services, etc.; 6) security companies. Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Wind, UBS est
22、imates Chinese peersStock code Market cap (US$ bn) 3M ADTV (US$ m)Rating Stock price (local crny) PT (local crny) Upside %2019E2020E2021E2019E2020E2021E2019E2020E2021E Country Garden Services 6098.HK5.712.7Neutral17.9618.704%34.126.420.38.66.95.50.7%0.9%1.2% Greentown Service2869.HK2.34.3Buy6.408.00
23、25%28.921.415.55.95.04.21.2%1.6%2.2% A-Living3319.HK2.34.1Buy13.3815.6017%15.111.59.32.62.42.13.3%4.4%5.4% COPH2669.HK1.84.3Sell4.272.70-37%29.223.519.39.77.66.01.1%1.4%1.7% Colour Life1778.HK0.92.2Buy5.396.3017%10.59.07.91.81.61.43.5%4.1%4.7% Xinchengyue1755.HK0.91.8Not Rated8.51N/AN/A25.016.710.96
24、.25.03.71.3%2.2%3.3% Ever Sunshine1995.HK0.71.2Not Rated3.50N/AN/A23.313.89.94.13.22.81.3%1.9%N/A Kaisa Property2168.HK0.20.5Not Rated12.92N/AN/A11.08.87.33.22.51.91.9%2.3%2.8% Nacity603506.SS0.4N/ANot Rated25.50N/AN/A24.119.215.53.63.22.71.2%1.2%1.2% Weighted Average5%26.920.415.76.55.34.31.5%1.9%2
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