2019年8月亚太地区房地产行业：菲律宾地产业：事实审查_54页_2019.8.30.pdf

《2019年8月亚太地区房地产行业：菲律宾地产业：事实审查_54页_2019.8.30.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《2019年8月亚太地区房地产行业：菲律宾地产业：事实审查_54页_2019.8.30.pdf（54页珍藏版）》请在佰策地产文库上搜索。

1、DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should b

2、e aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 30 August 2019 Asia Pacific/Philippines Equity Research Real Estate Management we estimate that M

3、etro Manila resi condo prices need to correct by at least 12% to improve affordability back to pre-froth level. Despite all these risks, we think the street remains sanguine about EPS resiliency, which sets investors up for potential disappointments. No clear winners, but earnings visibility a start

4、ing point. A major property crisis hails no winners as the industry will slow down new launches to mend high vacancy rates. Robinsons Land is our only OUTPERFORM- rated stock (i.e., Chengdu projects could be a boost), given bottom-up earnings visibility. We will avoid Megaworld (downgraded from Neut

5、ral to UNDERPERFORM) and Filinvest (UNDERPERFORM) given their higher direct exposure to POGOs. Ayala Land is downgraded to NEUTRAL (from Outperform) as its 1H19 results lagged and its launch pipeline appears vulnerable. SM Prime (NEUTRAL) has the least direct exposure to the sector, but with the Bay

6、 Area likely to feel the brunt of high vacancies, this could be a downside risk to the value of its land reclamation projects. 30 August 2019 Philippines Property Sector2 Focus charts Figure 2: POGO risks may lead to weaker EPS growthFigure 3: However, street remains sanguine 15.9% 15.6% 11.8% 11.5%

7、 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% - 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Sector EPSGrowth (% YoY) -4% -1% -2% -1% -1% 2% 3% -0.8% -4.9% -3.4% -3.0% -6.5% 0.0% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 201420152016201720182019E2020E YTD Sector averagePCOMP

8、Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: Office sector was overly reliant on POGOsFigure 5: BPOs cannot take-up the slack IT-BPM 37% POGO 33% Others 30% 1,800,000 1,378,410 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,600,0

9、00 1,700,000 1,800,000 1,900,000 2016201720182019E2020E2021E2022E ActualIBPAP base caseCS forecast Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6: For resi, highest vacancy in Bay AreaFigure 7: Resi prices has to correct to be affordable 14% 11% 1

10、2% 5%4% 18% 29% 69% 11% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Fort Bonifacio Makati CBDBay AreaOrtigas Center Quezon City as at 1H19Revised (with POGO backouts) 86 198 183 168 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20

11、18 2019E .but has been flattish since. Rising resi prices and higher mortgage rates combined for a worsening of affordability since 2017 Affordability more than doubled from 2000 to 2011. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 8: Avoid MEG a

12、nd FLI given direct exposureFigure 9: MEG and FLI EPS at most risk to cuts 20% 14% 7% 3% 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% FLIMEGALIRLCSMPH -7.5% -4.6% -1.2% -1.1% -0.1% -8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% FLIMEGRLCALISMPH Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Cr

13、edit Suisse estimates 30 August 2019 Philippines Property Sector3 Real(i)ty check Running out of steam Escalating risks for offshore gaming operations (POGOs), given proposals to move them to self-contained hubs raise concerns about a massive void that they will leave in the Metro Manila property ma

14、rket. While we see earnings to remain intact this year (i.e., 15.6% YoY for 2019E), we expect growth to be slower in 2020-21E (i.e., 11.8% and 11.5% YoY) with limited scope for upward revisions given regulatory headwinds for the BPOs and POGOs. Sector EPS growth has significantly outpaced MSCI Phils

15、 earnings and nominal GDP in the past. However, a slowdown in the next two years means a likely de-rating. We think street remains sanguine about the resiliency of EPS, though, 1H19 showed weak underlying resi trends (softer pre-sales, deferred new launches), and potential rise in vacancies in the o

16、ffice segment sets up investors for future disappointment about the sector. Office: Risks to status quo no longer benign We flagged the risks of over reliance on POGOs in the past given mounting regulatory issues. On average, demand from POGOs has accounted for 33% of office take-up in Metro Manila

17、from 2017 to 1H19 and will likely end the year with 900k sqm, or 7% of system wide occupancy (highest concentration is in the Bay Area and Makati CBD). However, growth will be capped as (1) the PAGCOR implements a moratorium on new POGO licenses, and (2) the Phils government tightens immigration in

18、order to further zero- in on unlicensed operators. If POGOs move out of Metro Manila, we think office vacancy may shoot up to 15.2% and 19.8% in 2020-21E. Note that we maintain our bearish view on the BPO sector (fiscal incentive rationalisation, AO 18, and automation), hence, we do not see it cushi

19、oning the impact of POGO back outs. We forecast BPO revenues and FTE growth to average 5.3% and 2.9% p.a. in 2019-22E, respectively. Second-round effects for resi catastrophic Assuming there are around 100k Chinese nationals employed by POGOs, we estimate that they may have taken up as much as 24k r

20、esi condo units, which is 21% of the total occupied resi condo units in Metro Manila, as at 1H19. Due to POGO back outs, we expect resi condo vacancy rates to hit 21.3% and 29.9% in 2020-21E, respectively. Note that the highest jump in vacancy could potentially be in the Bay Area (from 12% base case

21、 to as much as 69%). We do not think that local Filipinos will be able to supplant the void given (1) resi prices have outpaced household income growth in the past three years, and (2) mortgage rates are still high. As per our Credit Suisse Mortgage Affordability Index analysis, we think resi condo

22、prices in Metro Manila have to correct by 12% in order to improve mortgage affordability back to pre-froth levels. Stay safe and dry It is difficult to pick outright winners if the risk on POGOs turns into a full-blown property crisis. For a start, we prefer companies with decent earnings visibility

23、, low direct exposure to POGOs, and healthy balance sheet. We maintain OUTPERFORM on RLC, given potential bottom-up drivers for earnings growth to outpace peers (its Chengdu Phase 1 will boost its top line as it is now realisable by 2H19; sooner-than-expected rollout of Chengdu Phase 2 projects). We

24、 avoid MEG (to UNDERPERFORM from Neutral) and FLI (maintain UNDERPERFORM) as they have the highest direct exposure to POGOs via their office segments, and their aggressive office pipelines may pressurise their vacancy rates, given risk to demand from POGOs/BPOs. We downgrade ALI to NEUTRAL (from Out

25、perform) as 1H19 resi trends have lagged and potential new launches will be lower than expected. We maintain NEUTRAL on SMPHwhile it has the lowest direct exposure to POGOs, we think the potential downturn in the Bay Area may cause downward revisions on the NAV contribution of its proposed land recl

26、amations. EPS growth to decelerate to 11.8% and 11.5% in 2020-21E; 1H19 underlying trends were somewhat disappointing POGOs accounted for 33% of office take-up in past three years; this is a void even the BPOs will not be able to offset Resi condo vacancy may shoot up to unprecedented levels; curren

27、t resi prices are too expensive for local Filipinos RLC is our sole OUTPERFORM stock; avoid MEG and FLI; downgraded ALI to NEUTRAL; SMPH also NEUTRAL 30 August 2019 Philippines Property Sector4 Valuation summary Figure 10: Philippines property sector valuation summary ALIFLIMEGRLCSMPHSector RatingNE

28、UTRAL UNDERPERFORM UNDERPERFORMOUTPERFORMNEUTRAL Share price47.75 1.61 5.01 25.20 35.05 Target price50.80 1.44 4.20 30.40 34.50 % up/downside6.4-10.6-16.220.6-1.61.3 Market cap (P bn) 703,594 39,042 161,520 130,885 1,012,217 2,047,258 Market cap (US$ mn) 13,422 745 3,081 2,497 19,310 39,055 Valuatio

29、n ratios: P/E (x)2018A24.1 6.6 10.5 15.5 31.4 25.8 2019E20.9 5.8 9.3 13.5 26.5 22.0 2020E17.8 5.1 8.5 12.1 24.2 19.7 2021E16.3 4.6 7.4 10.4 21.8 17.7 EPS (% YoY)2018A16.0 3.7 15.8 13.0 16.6 15.9 2019E15.1 14.1 12.6 14.1 18.8 16.7 2020E17.4 13.7 9.9 12.0 9.1 12.3 2021E9.4 10.5 14.5 15.8 11.3 11.1 EPS

30、 CAGR (%)18-20E13.9 12.7 12.3 13.9 13.0 13.3 P/B (x)2018A3.8 0.6 1.0 1.4 4.0 3.4 2019E3.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 3.6 3.1 2020E3.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 3.2 2.8 2021E2.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 2.9 2.5 Dividend yield (%)2018A1.1 3.8 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.1 2019E1.7 3.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.4 2020E2.0 4.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.6 2021E2.1 3.8 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.

31、7 ROA (%)2018A4.7 3.9 5.0 5.1 5.6 5.2 2019E4.9 4.0 5.3 5.3 6.2 5.5 2020E5.3 4.1 5.6 5.6 6.3 5.8 2021E5.5 4.6 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.1 ROE (%)2018A16.5 9.1 10.2 10.2 13.2 13.8 2019E17.0 9.7 10.3 9.9 14.2 14.5 2020E17.8 10.1 10.5 10.2 14.1 14.7 2021E17.4 9.7 10.9 10.8 14.2 14.7 Source: Company data, Credit Sui

32、sse estimates PricePriceRating*Target PriceYearCFPSCFPS FY1ECFPS FY2ECFPS FY3E CompanyCcy28 Aug 19PrevCurPrevCurEndCcyPrevCurPrevCurPrevCur Ayala Land (ALI.PS)P47.75ON51.8050.80 Dec-18P2.852.873.343.383.74 Filinvest Land (FLI.PS)P1.61UU1.471.44 Dec-18P-.31.36.40 Megaworld Corp (MEG.PS)P5.01NU4.704.2

33、0 Dec-18P.58.62.66.68.77 Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC.PS) P25.20OO27.3030.40 Dec-18P2.702.843.053.143.67 SM Prime Holdings (SMPH.PS) P35.05NN35.0034.50 Dec-18P1.591.691.771.852.05 *O - Outperform, N - Neutral, U - Underperform, R - RestrictedV= Stock consider volatile ( see Disclosure Appendix).

34、Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 30 August 2019 Philippines Property Sector5 Running out of steam Decent EPS growth of 15.6% YoY this year buoyed the sector Share price performance of the Phils property stocks started off the year quite strong as earnings momentum have been buoyant, tho

35、ugh, have pulled back some of the gains in recent weeks due to escalating risks of offshore gaming operations (POGOs) moving out of the Metro Manila CBDs. While we see earnings momentum to be broadly robust for the remainder of 2019E, we expect growth to be slower in 2020-21E with limited scope for

36、potential upward revisions given regulatory headwinds for the BPO sector and the uncertainty on the sustainability of the boost from Chinese investments (i.e., POGO) to Phils property. On average, we see sector EPS growing by 15.6% in 2019E, but will likely decelerate to 11.8-11.5% p.a. in 2020-21E.

37、 We expect RLC to post resilient growth rates during this period, driven by the potential contribution of its resi projects in Chengdu, which are expected to start trickling in this year. Meanwhile, MEG and FLI may grow the slowest as demand for office decelerates, which post risks to their aggressi

38、ve growth pipeline. Figure 11: PH PropertyEPS growth YoY Figure 12: PH Property stocksEPS CAGR 2018A- 21E 13.2%13.3% 12.6% 15.3% 15.9% 15.6% 11.8% 11.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% - 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 2014A2015A2016A2017A2018A2019E2020E2021E Sector EPSGrowth (% Y

39、oY) 12.3% 12.7% 13.0%13.0% 13.9% 13.9% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% MEGFLIAverageSMPHALIRLC Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates but momentum may already be on its last leg Underlying trends for the resi sector and the risi

40、ng regulatory risks for the office sector suggest that the outperformance of Phils property vs the PCOMP may already be on its last leg given the downside risk to EPS growth momentum. We observed that the sector has outperformed the broader market in terms of absolute price performance (i.e., 18.1%

41、p.a. vs 7.5% p.a.) and EPS growth (i.e., 13.3% p.a. vs 6.4% p.a.) from 2011-18A. During this period, the sectors EPS growth always convincingly outpaced nominal GDP and MSCI Phils GDP growth (Figure 13) except in 2013 (i.e., due to MEG raising additional shares and SMPH posting a decline in resi rev

42、enues and incurring restructuring costs for the merger with SMDC). Looking at IBES consensus EPS estimates for 2019-20E, we think the sectors growth potential relative to the broader Phils market is not compelling enough to merit further valuation re-rating. EPS growth slower in 2020-21E and we see

43、limited upside risks Sector EPS growth has outperformed the broader market and economy, so a slowdown will not drive further valuation rerating 30 August 2019 Philippines Property Sector6 Figure 13: PH Property EPS growth (vs nominal GDP and MSCI Phils) 6.6% 6.3% -2.6% 3.7% 7.8% 3.9% 6.2% 5.6% 4.5%

44、3.5% 10.7% 6.0% -2.1% 5.5% 7.4% 4.3% 11.6% 12.1% -0.1% 1.6% -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 2011A2012A2013A2014A2015A2016A2017A2018A2019E2020E vs nominal GDPvs MSCI Phils Source: MSCI, Credit Suisse estimates (PH Property EPS growth rate for certain year minus nominal GDP or M

45、SCI Phils EPS growth rate). Street is sanguine about prospects of EPS resiliency We think street remains overly optimistic about the sectors EPS growth momentum such that, so far this year, we see upward EPS revisions for 2019-20E. In the past five years, we have witnessed downward EPS revisions for

46、 Phils property and the broader market, though, aside from that one instance in 2014 (due to RLCs malls redevelopment and SMPHs flattish resi growth), we highlight (Figure 14) the sector typically showed a lower percentage of EPS cut vs the MSCI Phils index. For 2019-20E, Bloomberg consensus estimat

47、es show a 2% and 3% EPS revision YTD, respectively. This is mainly driven by: RLCs Chengdu Phase 1 expected to start contributing to conso revenues MEG guiding that its upcoming office projects still exhibit high pre-leasing rates SMPH guiding for more resi launches given strong momentum of gross ta

48、ke-up Figure 14: Historical EPS revision per yearPH Property vs MSCI Phils -4% -1% -2% -1% -1% 2% 3% -0.8% -4.9% -3.4% -3.0% -6.5% 0.0% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 201420152016201720182019E2020E YTD Sector averagePCOMP Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Consensus 2019-20E EPS still show upwa

49、rd revisions so far this year 30 August 2019 Philippines Property Sector7 Figure 15: PH Property2019E EPS revision YTDFigure 16: PH Property2020E EPS revision YTD -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 J

50、ul-19 Aug-19 ALIFLIMEGRLCSMPH -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 May-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 ALIFLIMEGRLCSMPH Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates despite 1