2019年5月中国房地产行业:中国房地产:在棚户区淘金热之后_87页_20190531.pdf
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1、 Disclosures Logan excludes urban redevelopment project. Companies not covered by HSBC Of the nine provinces, the majority are among the most populous provinces in China or have economies that are at the weaker end of the spectrum Developers landbank exposure to lower-tier cities in these provinces*
2、 63% Jilin 64% Inner Mongolia 75% Shanxi 82% Heilongiang 75% Shandong 52% Shaanxi Yanlord Logan KWG Sino Ocean China Jinmao Shimao COLI China SCE SZ Investment CR Land CIFI CG Agile GZ R sticky policy 25 February 2019 China Overseas Land Logan excludes urban redevelopment project; results of landban
3、k exposure in 16 districts are from our findings in our thematic report, China Real Estate Joining the dots: Finding the new property hot spots (23 May 2018) *Companies not covered by HSBC *The original list of investible cities was 25, but was subsequently refined to 21 cities due to changes in loc
4、al housing market dynamics Source: Company announcement, HSBC estimates $ Equities Real Estate May 2019 8 The going gets tougher We have written a series of reports in the past two years identifying investment opportunities in Chinas sprawling property market. As the real estate market started to co
5、ol, we have shifted the focus to assessing which cities face the highest risk in the event of a correction in house prices. In January, we looked at the level of household debt and how dependent city economies were on the property sector for raising revenue (see A city-by-city debt health check, pub
6、lished on 9 January 2019). This report looks at another risk the scaling back of Chinas vast shantytown redevelopment project. The project has had a huge impact on the residential property market, especially in lower-tier cities. The main catalyst was the decision taken in 2015 to pay cash compensat
7、ion to many more shantytown residents rather than local governments allocating them alternative accommodation. This allowed them to buy modern flats, pushing up prices and sales volumes. But the government is applying the brakes, especially in cities where property markets are still hot, where it is
8、 scrapping or cutting the cash subsidies that allow residents who move out of shantytowns to buy new properties. Effectively, what drove the housing market recovery in 2016 is set to cause a market downturn in 2019. Life after Chinas shantytown sugar rush What started as a social welfare programme t
9、urned into a massive boon for the property market. The cash compensation given to residents to move out of old, run-down properties pushed up sales volumes and prices as millions of people bought new homes. But now the government is scaling back the shantytown programme to help keep a lid on the fro
10、thy residential market. The impact will be biggest in smaller cities, the focus of shantytown redevelopment. In this report we identify nine provinces where sales rely heavily on cash from shantytown compensation, and where the number of new replacement flats is being cut sharply. We identify the de
11、velopers with the highest exposure to these provinces. This report looks at another risk the scaling back of the vast shantytown redevelopment project 9 Equities Real Estate May 2019 In this report we forecast that: The number of new start flats related to shantytown projects will fall 54% to 2.85m
12、units in 2019, according to the figure released by Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD). Based on our sensitivity analysis, a 10ppt decline in cash compensation ratio to 40% (from 50% in 2018e) imply a 2ppt lower shantytown contribution to our base c
13、ase national sales volume forecast. Guizhou, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Shaanxi, are the provinces more at risk from a shantytown-related slowdown in the housing market. Longfor is most exposed to these provinces, followed by Guangzhou R Longfor and Cou
14、nty Garden are Hold Rated while R starts were made on 6.3m units in 2018, with the balance to be completed by 2020. However, last year China began scaling back targets for the number of new flats to be built as part of this programme and also cut the amount of compensation paid to residents to buy n
15、ew homes. Inevitably, this has negative implications for the housing market, particularly in regions that have become particularly dependent on the shantytown programme to support their real estate markets since 2016. Sales volumes have already started to fall in some areas. The project started to t
16、ake on far greater significance after 2015 Equities Real Estate May 2019 10 Figure 4: Key policies relevant to shantytown redevelopment after 2015 Time Department Summary Heating Jun-2015 State Council State Council issued the opinion on shantytown redevelopment. The opinion set out the three-year t
17、arget of 18m construction starts for shantytown redevelopment projects in 2015-17. The opinion clearly specified that the scale of shantytown redevelopment should be enlarged and construction start should be accelerated. Beijing also encouraged various funding model for shantytown redevelopment incl
18、uding government purchase model and PPP. Aug-2015 MOHURD MOHURD issued the notice to encourage cash compensation for shantytown redevelopment and set monetisation ratio to be higher than 50%. Mar-2016 NPC 2016 government work report sets shantytown new start target at 20m units as part of the13th Fi
19、ve-year Plan. The government work report also encourages higher shantytown cash compensation ratio. May-2017 State Council New three-year target of 15m units of shantytown redevelopment new construction in 2018-20 was set during the executive meeting held by State Council. Mar-2018 NPC Target of 5.8
20、m units of shantytown redevelopment new flats was mentioned in the 2018 government work report. Cooling Jun-2018 CDB The approval for shantytown project funding was revoked to CDBs head office from local branches, indicating the scaling down of shantytown funding and cash compensation scheme. Jun-20
21、18 MoF MoF issued draft of comment on regulating government purchase. It limited the length of services purchased by government to be within three years. Special treatment of shantytown redevelopment was not mentioned. Oct-2018 State Council During the executive meeting held by State Council, State
22、Council called for cities with low housing inventory and upward pressure on housing prices to terminate cash compensation for shantytown redevelopment projects. Stringent standards should be applied when selecting shantytown projects. Oct-2018 MOHURD During the meeting held by MOHURD with representa
23、tives from NDRC, MoF and PBoC, it is agreed that government purchase model on shantytown projects would not be allowed in 2019 and local government would need to issue project bond for shantytown project instead. Mar-2019 NPC New start target of shantytown redevelopment was not mentioned in 2019 gov
24、ernment working report Apr-2019 MoF, MOHURD According to the notice released on social housing budget jointly issued by MoF and MOHURD, 2019 shantytown redevelopment target is set at 2.85m units. Source: Government release, HSBC 11 Equities Real Estate May 2019 Screening for provinces that rely on s
25、hantytown spending In November 2018, MOHURD reiterated that it intends to adhere to the target to commence construction of 15m shantytown units in 2018-20, whereby 6.26m units were completed in 2018. While the government has achieved fairly consistent new starts level of c6m units since 2015, there
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